

Monthly hydropower forecasting and scenario simulation helped turn changing weather, reservoir and snow conditions into a clearer planning layer for renewable power generation.
The challenge was not only to improve a model. The capability needed to fit the client’s operating context, connect the right explanatory variables and give business users outputs they could trust, refresh and reuse.




NTT DATA helped shape an end-to-end planning capability that connects data preparation, analytical forecasting, scenario simulation and decision support into a workflow business users can apply repeatedly.
Integrated internal company data with external information and the most influential generation drivers, including precipitation, reservoir volume, temperature and accumulated snow.
Made forecast changes and their underlying assumptions visible, helping planners understand deviations and translate changing hydrological conditions into planning inputs.
Built an aggregate monthly hydropower-generation forecast for the current and following year, combining historical information, explanatory variables and analytical models.
Created a simulator so users could refresh forecasts, test changes in the main drivers and compare alternative assumptions through a repeatable decision layer.
The initiative supported more accurate medium-term generation planning, faster forecast refresh when hydrological assumptions changed and a more structured understanding of forecast deviations. The reviewed source documents report a 2.31 GWh one-month forecast error, a 4 GWh improvement versus the prior approach and EUR 750k impact linked to energy purchase and sale decisions. Beyond model accuracy, the value lies in making planning more repeatable, scenario-based and useful for commercial decision-making.