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Geological uncertainty as the starting point for mine decisions
The danger begins when the uncertainty disappears from the conversation before it disappears from the geology.
Keeping geological uncertainty connected to decisions changes how information is valued.
Additional drilling can be judged by whether it could materially change a decision, not simply by whether it adds more data.
Mine designs and scenarios can be tested against plausible geological alternatives rather than one expected central case.
Capital can be committed with a clearer understanding of which geological assumptions remain exposed and how much they matter.
Scenario modelling identifies where additional drilling or interpretation has the greatest potential to change a material decision.
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Identify the decision – drilling, mine geometry, sequencing, infrastructure or another commitment – that geological uncertainty could still change.
Maintain traceability from observations and assays through interpretations, assumptions and model versions.
Where appropriate, use ranges, alternative interpretations and geostatistical simulations rather than allowing one expected representation to appear certain.
Show how plausible geological outcomes change the alternatives being considered rather than isolating uncertainty inside the geology function.
Scenario modelling can identify where additional drilling or interpretation has the greatest potential to change a material decision.
Reconciliation between models and later observations can improve both the geological representation and the decisions built on it.
CIM’s 2026 resource estimation program addresses sampling and estimation uncertainty, confidence classification and conditional simulation for strategic mine planning and project evaluation.
The objective is not to eliminate uncertainty before deciding. Mining could wait forever for that.
The operation knows which uncertainty matters to the decision being made and what alternatives it creates for design or sequencing.
The mine knows what additional information is worth buying before the commitment becomes difficult to reverse in rock and capital.
Traceability from observations and assays through interpretations, assumptions and model versions keeps every decision explainable.
Before a mine learns how to operate the orebody, it must decide how much it needs to know about it, and which gaps it can accept.
Explore how connecting uncertainty modelling to drilling, design and capital decisions can improve mining commitments.
