Oil tanker at sunset near refinery
報告書
石油・ガス

The heavy-barrel readiness test

Heavy crude is returning. Is your refinery ready to turn it into margin?
Readiness is refinery-specific

Value depends on matching each cargo and blend to policy eligibility, logistics, unit limits, product markets and the refinery’s current operating state.

At a glance
Four signals shaping the conversion capacity outlook

Four signals show why heavy-crude readiness depends on refinery-specific decisions, not nameplate capacity alone.

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Imports have returned

U.S. net imports from Venezuela reached 630 kb/d in June 2026, up from 200 kb/d in January.

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Operating headroom is tight

Gulf Coast refinery utilization was 96.5% in the week ending 18 September 2026.

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Conversion is concentrated

PADD III held 57.7% of U.S. coking capacity as of 1 January 2026.

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Current assays are essential

One historic grade marker is 10.7 API and 5.2% sulfur; each cargo still requires a current assay.

What leaders should do

Test one refinery, two Venezuelan assays and one substitute crude before expanding the model

Turn heavy-crude compatibility into a repeatable margin decision

Download “The heavy-barrel readiness test” and explore the flow reactivation, refinery-specific constraints and process-twin decision layer shaping heavy-crude readiness through 2030.

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